No-Fly Zones: Don’t Take the Bait
A no-fly zone over all or part of Ukraine will not prevent Russia targeting civilian population centers. But it will require the US, along with our NATO allies, to directly kill Russians. Most of the destruction is caused by surface-to-surface fires — which a no-fly zone can’t stop. Further, Putin’s been saying for decades that NATO is a threat to Russia. If NATO begins to bomb Russian forces, it will play right into Putin’s hand. The best strategy is to help Ukraine improve their ground-based air defense capabilities, allowing them to better defend against the missiles and rockets that are killing innocent Ukrainians.
To establish a no-fly zone the first step is to take out the ground-based air defense systems that will be a threat to your pilots. These are surface-to-air missile systems and anti-aircraft artillery. Some of this can be done with stand-off weapons like cruise missiles and unmanned systems like armed drones. But some of the work will have to be done by manned flights. Regardless of the delivery platform it will mean killing Russians. Next, you need to put up 24/7 combat air patrols to shoot down anything that’s not yours. Russia will surely test it. Now you have Russian and American aircraft in aerial combat. Russia would be outmatched — I doubt they would survive any engagement, but that’s not the point. The point is you have created a situation where the world’s two largest nuclear powers are in direct combat with one another.
Most of the damage inflicted on civilians in Ukraine is not delivered by aircraft. It’s coming from surface-to-surface systems — ballistic missiles, rockets and artillery. A no-fly zone will not prevent any of this…zero. The only thing a no-fly zone will do is prevent ordnance delivered by fixed or rotary wing aircraft. The better strategy is to help Ukraine improve their ground-based air defenses. We are already providing Ukraine with Stinger surface-to-air missiles and they are being used to good effect. By the latest estimates from the Kyiv Independent, a loose association of Ukrainian journalists reporting online from inside Ukraine, in 16 days of fighting, Russian forces have lost 74 fixed-wing and 86 rotary-wing aircraft. In terms of systems that can intercept incoming missiles and rockets — this is a longer-term issue, primarily because of the training needed to operate weapon systems effective against these types of projectiles. But we can and should start that training now. Poland and the Baltic Republics operate these systems and I suspect they would be only too happy to host a training program. We can also provide armed drones (like the Turks are doing) and counter-battery fire control radars that will help Ukrainian forces locate and destroy Russian artillery and rocket launchers.
Putin is losing this war. Bringing NATO directly into this fight would be a huge gift to him and possibly his only way out of a disaster of his own making. Putin has been telling the Russian people for decades that NATO is a threat to Russia. It’s a lie of course, but if NATO begins bombing and killing Russian soldiers NATO just handed Putin the narrative he needs to further justify and escalate this war. Video of dead Russians and remnants of US bombs will flood state-controlled media in Russia. Putin could even use this as an excuse to attack the NATO airbases supporting the no-fly zone. It’s an escalation nightmare. And for very little improvement in the lives of suffering Ukrainians.
A no-fly zone is a trap that Putin hopes we step in. It will do little to protect Ukrainians. It will put the world’s two largest nuclear powers in direct combat. It will let Putin claim NATO is the threat he always said it was. And it could trigger NATO to invoke Article V if their airbases are attacked. Huge risks for small rewards. A no-fly zone is a dumb and dangerous idea.
The author is a retired USAF colonel with over 5,000 flight hours and extensive experience in Central and Eastern Europe.
